Pakistan winter 2026 late mild start is expected, according to the National Disaster Management Authority, which says the switch to cool weather is likely to be delayed. The NDMA says the first sharp cold spells will come from late November, and real cold waves will come mainly in December. November should be warmer than normal almost everywhere in Pakistan, and wetter than normal in the north and in Balochistan. For people who are waiting for winter clothes and heaters, the message is that winter is coming, but it is coming later than usual, and it will start gently.
NDMA winter outlook is the source of the forecast, and it comes from the authority’s Disaster Early Warning outlook for October to December 2026. The outlook is a report of more than 60 pages from the National Emergency Operations Centre, and it was read on 1 November 2026. The report does not carry an exact issue date, only an October 2026 file path, and it is a model outlook, not a day to day forecast. That means it shows the likely tilt of the season, and daily weather can still differ from the outlook, so readers should check the weekly forecast for day to day weather.
The outlook expects above normal temperatures across most of Pakistan through December, according to the NDMA outlook. November should be warmer than normal across the country, most of all around Lahore and Faisalabad, and December should be near normal to slightly above normal in Lahore, Islamabad, Sukkur, Karachi and Quetta, with cooler pockets only in the far northern mountains. That means most cities will feel warmer than a normal winter, and the cold will be felt most in the mountains. For farmers, the warmer start could affect crops that need cold weather, and for families, it could mean lower heating costs in November.
The northern areas rain snow outlook is the other side of the forecast, and it is wetter than normal in the north. Rain should be above normal in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, Azad Kashmir, northern Punjab and northern Balochistan, while Sindh stays near normal or a little drier. The Pakistan Meteorological Department has already forecast light rain and snowfall over mountains at isolated places in upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir and northeastern Balochistan, with a westerly wave bringing cloudy skies and isolated light rain and snow over high mountain peaks in Gilgit-Baltistan, Chitral, Dir, Swat, Hunza and the Neelum Valley.
Pakistan Meteorological Department has also given the day to day picture for the first week of November, and it shows a dry country with cold in the north. The department forecast predominantly dry weather across the country on Thursday 5 November, with light rain and snowfall over mountains at isolated places in the upper areas. In Punjab, most districts were expected to have dry weather, with patches of fog and smog in Narowal, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Lahore, Faisalabad and Multan in the morning. In Sindh, dry weather was expected in most districts, while the southern parts were likely to remain hot during the daytime.
The first sharp cold spells are expected from late November, and cold waves December is when the real winter is expected to arrive, according to the NDMA outlook. That pattern is normal for Pakistan, where December and January are the coldest months, but the NDMA says the start will be delayed this year. For people in the northern areas, the cold will come earlier than in the plains, and for people in Karachi, the winter will stay mild, with the city a little warmer than normal in November and near normal to slightly above in December.
The temperatures recorded in major cities on 5 November show how mild the start has been. The Pakistan Meteorological Department said the minimum and maximum temperatures were Islamabad 10 to 30 degrees Celsius, Lahore 16 to 30, Karachi 21 to 37, Peshawar 13 to 30, Quetta 6 to 24, Gilgit 5 to 23, Muzaffarabad 10 to 27, Skardu 5 to 17, Murree 6 to 20, Faisalabad 18 to 30 and Multan 18 to 31. The lowest minimum temperature in the country was minus 3 degrees in Leh, followed by 3 degrees in Kalam, which shows that the cold is already present in the high mountains, even while the plains stay warm.
For farmers, the outlook has a mixed message, because a warmer November can help some crops and hurt others. Rain above normal in the north and in Balochistan could help winter crops that need water, but it could also delay harvesting in areas where the crop is still in the field. In Punjab, the outlook expects a wetter November across most of the province, with the wettest areas around Lahore, Sialkot, Narowal and the Rawalpindi fringe. In Sindh, the outlook expects near normal to slightly below normal rain, which is a typical dry November for the province.
In the coming weeks, the items to watch will be whether the first cold spell arrives in late November as forecast, whether the rain in the north turns into heavy snow in the mountains, and whether the smog in Lahore gets worse as the weather stays dry in the plains. For now, Pakistan winter 2026 late mild start is the outlook from the NDMA, with warmer than normal temperatures, wetter weather in the north, and real cold waves expected mainly in December.
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