The Odisha cyclone alert is in force as a depression over the Bay of Bengal gathers strength and moves towards the east coast of India. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) says the system is likely to become a cyclonic storm by the morning of 26 October and a very severe cyclonic storm before it crosses the Andhra Pradesh coast between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam by the forenoon of 28 October.
The depression formed over the east-central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal on the evening of 24 October. By 5.30 am on Sunday, 25 October, it was centred about 880 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam, and about 1,150 km east of Bapatla in Andhra Pradesh.
The IMD has issued a pre-cyclone watch for the Andhra Pradesh coast and the adjoining south Odisha coast. The watch is an early warning that asks people and officials to stay ready while the track of the system becomes clearer over the next two days.
If the system strengthens as forecast, it will be named Cyclone Arnab. The name was proposed by Bangladesh under the regional naming list for storms in the North Indian Ocean, and it means ocean in Bengali. It would be the first cyclone to form over the Bay of Bengal in 2026.
How the storm will grow
The IMD has set out the growth of the system step by step. The depression is likely to move south at first, then turn west-northwest and deepen into a deep depression during 25 October.
It should then become a cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal by the morning of 26 October. A day later, around the morning of 27 October, it is expected to strengthen into a severe cyclonic storm.
After that, the system is forecast to keep gaining power as it moves northwest towards the coast. By the morning of 28 October, it should be a very severe cyclonic storm close to the Andhra Pradesh coast.
At landfall, the IMD expects maximum sustained winds of 115 to 125 kmph, with gusts reaching 140 kmph. That is strong enough to damage weak structures, uproot trees and bring down power lines in the coastal districts.
Forecasters have also noted that warm sea water and low wind shear over the Bay of Bengal favour further strengthening. The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre has said the conditions for the storm to develop are favourable, and global weather models agree that a significant tropical cyclone is likely to form within a day.
Rain and wind warnings
Heavy rain is the other big concern, and it will reach Odisha before the storm itself. The regional weather office has warned of heavy to very heavy rain in several Odisha districts on Tuesday, 27 October, and Wednesday, 28 October.
Ganjam, Gajapati, Rayagada, Koraput and Malkangiri are likely to be the worst hit. The IMD has issued a red warning for these five districts, with extremely heavy rain expected at one or two places on 28 October.
Many other districts are under an orange warning for the same days. They include Mayurbhanj, Keonjhar, Balasore, Bhadrak, Kendrapara, Jagatsinghpur, Jajpur, Cuttack, Puri, Nayagarh, Dhenkanal, Khurda, Kandhamal, Kalahandi and Nabarangpur.
In Andhra Pradesh, very heavy rain is forecast in coastal districts including Visakhapatnam, Srikakulam, Vizianagaram, Kakinada, East Godavari and West Godavari on 27 and 28 October. Rain is expected to continue in parts of both states on 29 October as the system moves inland and weakens.
Along and off the Odisha coast, squally weather is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, with winds of 40 to 50 kmph and gusts up to 60 kmph. The sea will stay rough to very rough, and the IMD has advised fishermen not to venture into the sea until 29 October.
Preparations on the coast
The Odisha government activated its disaster response machinery on Saturday, 24 October, soon after the low pressure area became a depression. Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi reviewed the preparedness and told officials to aim for zero casualties.
All 30 districts of the state have been placed on alert. Collectors of 16 coastal and southern districts have been asked to take precautionary steps, and the leave of government staff has been cancelled in Ganjam, Gajapati, Puri and Khurda districts.
District collectors have also been allowed to decide whether schools and colleges should close, depending on local conditions. Educational institutions in five districts are set to stay closed on 28 and 29 October.
Fishermen who are out at sea have been urged to return to the coast at once, and owners of large trawlers have been alerted. In Cuttack, Durga Puja committees have been asked to remove decorative bamboo structures so that strong winds cannot turn them into a danger.
Teams of the National Disaster Response Force, the Odisha Disaster Rapid Action Force and the fire services have been placed on standby. Cyclone shelters have been readied, and control rooms are watching the movement of the system around the clock.
In Andhra Pradesh, the state disaster management authority has also asked people to stay alert. It has activated control rooms to track more than 30,000 fishing boats across 12 coastal districts, and it has warned that heavy rain, strong winds and rough seas lie ahead.
The approaching storm has already changed official plans. President Droupadi Murmu’s scheduled two-day visit to Odisha from 28 October has been postponed as a precaution, and officials said the visit has been rescheduled for early November.
People living in low-lying coastal areas should follow the latest IMD bulletins and the instructions of local officials. The exact landfall point can still shift, and the IMD is expected to update its forecast as the system moves closer to the coast.
Odisha has faced major cyclones before, and its disaster teams now practise early evacuation and shelter drills every year. The state has built a network of cyclone shelters along the coast, and officials say the aim this time is the same as in recent storms: to move people to safety early, so that a powerful storm causes as little loss of life as possible.
The Bay of Bengal usually sees its strongest storms in October and November, when warm sea water feeds the systems that form over the open sea. This year the first of those storms is arriving on schedule, and the next three days will show how strong it becomes before it reaches land.
