ISLAMABAD: Pakistan exports July October 2026 trade deficit is the headline from the latest trade figures, after exports grew slowly and imports rose much faster in the first four months of the fiscal year. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics reported on Friday that merchandise exports stood at 11.34 billion dollars in July to October 2026, up 8.52 percent from 10.45 billion dollars in the same period last year. The growth looks fair on paper, but the trade gap widened sharply because imports climbed by 12.59 percent in the same period. For exporters, the numbers confirm a tough year, and for the economy, they show how hard it is to close the gap.
The headline figure comes from the PBS exports 11.34 billion dollars July October release, and the detail behind it is less encouraging. Growth has slowed mainly in the Middle Eastern and European markets since the war in the Middle East began to bite. Exporters have also been hit by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed up shipping costs and broke supply chains. An export market worth more than 1.5 billion dollars in Afghanistan has also stayed shut, and that loss alone has hurt many traders who relied on the route.
The other side of the ledger is heavier. The imports 25.96 billion dollars trade deficit figure tells the story, because imports surged to 25.96 billion dollars in the four months, against 23.06 billion dollars a year earlier. The trade deficit rose 15.97 percent to 14.63 billion dollars, up from 12.62 billion dollars in the same period last year. In October alone, the import bill rose 11.81 percent to 6.81 billion dollars, while the monthly deficit jumped 19.70 percent to 3.87 billion dollars. The gap is growing, not shrinking.
October itself showed how weak the momentum has become. The October exports 2.93 billion dollars figure was only 2.84 percent higher than the 2.85 billion dollars recorded in October last year. On a month on month basis, export proceeds grew by just 0.21 percent compared with September 2026. That is a meagre rise, and it points to a slowdown in the country’s export earnings at the very time when imports are climbing fast. Exporters say the high cost of doing business, led by elevated energy prices, is eating into their ability to compete.
The Afghanistan market closed October 2025 remains one of the clearest reasons for the slowdown. Trade with Afghanistan has been suspended since October 2025, and that has taken away a market worth more than 1.5 billion dollars a year. Exporters who sold food, cement, medicines and other goods across the border have had to find new buyers, and that takes time. The finance ministry says officials are working on measures to promote exports, with a special focus on small and medium enterprises, but traders say the help needs to reach them faster.
The longer view is even more sobering. In the last fiscal year, FY26, Pakistan’s merchandise exports not only missed the annual target by 4.87 billion dollars but also shrank. Export proceeds for FY26 stood at 30.13 billion dollars, down 5.97 percent from 32.04 billion dollars in the previous year. The trade deficit widened by 21.57 percent to 39.47 billion dollars in FY26, up from 32.46 billion dollars the year before. For FY25, the deficit had already widened by 9 percent to 26.27 billion dollars. The pattern is clear, and it has repeated for three years in a row.
The planning ministry 100 billion dollars 2035 target is the latest ambition set out for the export sector. The ministry had earlier projected that export proceeds would climb to 60 billion dollars by 2030, a target that has largely stayed on paper. More recently, the ministry revised the projection upwards and set a fresh target of 100 billion dollars to be achieved by 2035. The gap between the ambition and the current pace is wide, and the latest four month figures show how far the country still has to travel to reach it.
What happens next will depend on costs at home and calm abroad. Exporters have been complaining for months that energy prices, shipping costs and the cost of credit make their goods dearer than those of rivals. The war in the Middle East has added to the strain, and the closed Afghan border has removed a ready market. The government says it is working on export support, but the four month data shows that the support has not yet turned into faster growth. The October numbers, with exports barely moving while imports jumped, are the clearest warning in the report.
Readers should note that these figures are the first four months of the fiscal year, and a lot can still change. The export sector has faced pressure since February, when the Middle East conflict began to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. If the region calms and the Afghan border reopens, exports could recover some ground. But for now, the deficit stands at 14.63 billion dollars for four months, and the country is paying far more for what it buys than it earns from what it sells. The next monthly release will show whether October was a pause or the start of a longer slide.
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