Cyclone Arnab has strengthened into a very severe cyclonic storm on Tuesday, 27 October, as it moves closer to the east coast of India. The storm is now stronger than it was in its earlier stages, and the next few hours are important for the coastal districts that lie in its path. Landfall is still expected on Wednesday, 28 October, in the forenoon, between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, with winds of 115 to 125 kmph gusting to 140 kmph.
The change on Tuesday is an intensification. The storm has grown stronger over the Bay of Bengal, and it is now classed as a very severe cyclonic storm. That is the key news today. The earlier alert on Sunday and the posts on Monday covered the earlier stages of the system, when it was still building up over the sea. Tuesday brings a clear step up in strength, and that is why the focus has now moved to the landfall and to the hours just before it.
Landfall is the point at which the centre of the storm crosses the coast and moves over land. For Cyclone Arnab, that moment is still expected on Wednesday morning. The stretch of coast named for the landfall runs between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam. People in the coastal districts in that area, and in the districts close to it, will feel the strongest effects first. The winds at landfall are expected to reach 115 to 125 kmph, with gusts up to 140 kmph. Gusts are short bursts of wind that can be much stronger than the steady wind around them, and they can cause damage even when the steady wind seems lower.
Landfall timing
The timing matters because it tells people when the worst of the weather is likely to arrive. A forenoon landfall on Wednesday means that the morning hours will be the most serious period for the coast. The hours before landfall will also be difficult, as the rain and the wind build up while the storm is still close to the coast. Coastal districts are therefore being asked to stay ready through Tuesday and into Wednesday morning, and not to wait until the landfall itself to take care.
The storm is moving over the Bay of Bengal, and the sea is a large part of the story. A cyclone draws its strength from warm sea water, and it can grow stronger while it stays over the open sea. That is what has happened with Cyclone Arnab. It has used the time over the Bay of Bengal to build up, and it is now a very severe cyclonic storm. Once it crosses the coast and moves over land, it will lose that source of strength, but the landfall itself is still the moment of greatest risk for the coast.
Rain and surge
Heavy to very heavy rain is expected on the coastal districts on 27 and 28 October. That covers both Tuesday, when the storm is nearing the coast, and Wednesday, when it makes landfall. Heavy rain over a short period can fill drains and low lying areas very fast. Very heavy rain can make roads hard to use and can add to the problems caused by the wind. People in coastal districts should expect wet and windy conditions through both days, with the rain likely to be heaviest close to the coast.
A storm surge is also expected. The surge may reach up to 1.5 metres near Kakinada and Yanam. A storm surge is a rise in sea water that is pushed towards the coast by the strong winds of the storm. It can flood low lying coastal areas, even before the rain has had time to build up on land. Kakinada and Yanam are named as the places where the surge may be highest, at up to 1.5 metres. That is a serious height for water coming in from the sea, and it is one of the main reasons why the coast is on high alert.
The combination of strong wind, heavy rain and a storm surge is what makes a very severe cyclonic storm so dangerous for a coast. Each part adds to the others. The wind can damage roofs and trees and power lines. The rain can flood streets and homes. The surge can push sea water into places that are normally dry. Taken together, they can make life very hard for people living close to the sea, and they can disrupt travel and daily work for a day or more.
Preparations
Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Naidu is on high alert, and the state is preparing for the landfall. A high alert means that officials are watching the storm closely and are ready to act fast if the situation changes. It also means that the state machinery is in place to respond to problems as they come up, from fallen trees to flooded roads to people who need help to move to a safer place.
Odisha is also preparing. The storm is expected to cross the Andhra Pradesh coast, but the weather system is large, and its effects are not limited to one state. Odisha shares the same eastern coastline, and it is also watching the storm and getting ready for rain and strong winds. The preparations in both states show that the storm is being treated as a serious event, even though the landfall point is named for the Andhra Pradesh coast.
Preparation for a cyclone is about more than watching the weather. It is about making sure that people know what is happening and what to do. It is about keeping a close eye on the rain and the wind, and about being ready to help people in the coastal districts if the weather turns worse. The high alert in Andhra Pradesh and the preparations in Odisha are part of that work, and they will continue through Tuesday and into Wednesday.
What happens next
The next update will be watched closely by people in the coastal districts. The key questions are simple. Will the storm stay on its present path. Will it keep its present strength until landfall. And will the rain and the surge match the forecast. The answers will come from the official weather bulletins, which track the storm hour by hour as it moves across the Bay of Bengal.
For now, the facts are clear. Cyclone Arnab is now a very severe cyclonic storm. Landfall is still expected on Wednesday, 28 October, in the forenoon, between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam. The winds at landfall are expected to be 115 to 125 kmph, gusting to 140 kmph. Heavy to very heavy rain is expected on the coastal districts on 27 and 28 October. A storm surge of up to 1.5 metres is expected near Kakinada and Yanam. Andhra Pradesh is on high alert under Chief Minister Naidu, and Odisha is also preparing.
People in the coastal districts should keep following the official advice through Tuesday and Wednesday. The storm is at its strongest stage so far, and the landfall is now less than a day away. The Bay of Bengal has seen many storms, and each one is different, but the pattern is familiar. A storm grows over the sea, it moves towards the coast, and the coast prepares for the wind, the rain and the surge. Cyclone Arnab is following that pattern, and the next few hours will show how strong it is when it finally reaches land.
